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Do Your Best Decisions Happen When You Stop Thinking?
CARTER REPORTS
Greetings - It’s David here.
Carter Reports is formatted as a One Must-Read newsletter. Each week I send you one story and explain why it's worth your time. My choices include key issues for growing companies; different points of view, and hidden gems. These are the stories I know will give you a competitive edge.
What if I told you that your toughest business decisions aren't actually that tough—your brain just needs permission to trust what it already knows? This week, I’m diving into the neuroscience behind decision-making and why many successful leaders have learned to stop overthinking and start trusting their informed intuition. From Jack Welch's approach to Navy SEAL protocols, discover the framework that turns gut feelings into your greatest competitive advantage.
I appreciate your trust and readership. Best. David
One Must-Read Article
Do Your Best Decisions Happen When You Stop Thinking?
So, how do you make business decisions? How would you measure the success of your decisions? I am always looking for a different perspective, or a new lens to examine the behaviors of successful business leaders.
Here’s an uncomfortable truth: research shows that decision-making may be “a process handled to a large extent by unconscious mental activity.” That brilliant strategic move you’re patting yourself on the back for? Your brain likely made it before you even realized there was a choice to make.
While most business books preach data-driven decision making, the most successful leaders know something the rest of us are just catching up to: your gut isn’t just giving you feelings—it’s processing information at lightning speed.
The Science Behind the “Feeling”
Neuroscience research (see sources below) reveals that intuition is a complex cognitive phenomenon that allows you to make decisions without the need for conscious reasoning. Your gut feelings aren’t mystical hunches—they’re your brain’s sophisticated pattern-recognition system working overtime.
Intuition is the result of information processing in the brain that results in prediction based on previous experience. Think of it as your brain’s private algorithm, trained on every deal you’ve closed, every hire that worked out, and every mistake you’ve learned from.
The Kopeikina Method: Information + Intuition = Decision Gold
Dr. Luda Kopeikina, who worked alongside Jack Welch and studied decision-making with 115+ CEOs, discovered something notable. The best decisions don’t come from pure analysis or pure instinct—they come from a specific sequence that most leaders accidentally skip.
Her book The Right Decision, Every Time: How to Reach Perfect Clarity on Tough Decisions flips conventional wisdom on its head. Here is her framework:
Step 1: Do Your Homework (But Stop at 70%) Gather the intel, consult advisors, conduct interviews—but here’s the key: stop when you have 70% of what you need. Perfect information is a myth, and the remaining 30% often costs more than the decision itself.
Step 2: Get Quiet Steve Jobs took walks. Navy SEALs use box breathing. Ray Dalio’s team meditates. The method varies, but the principle doesn’t: quiet your mind to hear what your brain already knows.
Step 3: The Future Perfect Test Here’s where it gets interesting. State your decision out loud as if it’s already done: “We acquired the company,” “We hired Sarah,” “We passed on the deal.” Then pay attention to how your body responds.
Step 4: The Flip Test
Now state the opposite decision as fact: “We walked away from the acquisition,” “We didn’t hire Sarah,” “We took the deal.” Notice the difference in how this feels.
Many leaders either:
Over-analyze until the opportunity passes
Make snap judgments without gathering enough information
Gather perfect information but ignore what their experience tells them
The magic happens in the sweet spot: informed intuition.

Here’s My Take
Leaders are letting go of “what’s always worked” and starting to tackle hard truths that are holding them back in today’s AI-driven economy. One of those truths? Your competitive advantage isn’t having more data—it’s processing the right data faster and trusting your pattern recognition.
Business leaders face the challenge of making strategic decisions in a complex environment where perfect clarity is impossible. The leaders who thrive are those who can dance between analysis and instinct.
Your Decision Advantage
Jim Collins was right: greatness equals many smart decisions. But smart doesn’t mean perfect—it means informed intuition, executed consistently.
The next time you’re facing a tough call, remember: your brain has been preparing for this decision longer than you realize. Do the work to get to 70%, quiet your mind, and then trust the system that’s been learning from every choice you’ve ever made.
Your gut isn’t just a feeling—it’s your secret weapon. Use it.
That’s A Wrap
Successful companies aren't necessarily the smartest or the most well-funded—they're the ones who've learned to work with uncertainty instead of against it. It's not about having all the answers—it's about staying nimble enough to find them as you go.
Reminder: I'd love to hear what you're dealing with. Hit reply and let me know if you have suggested topics for future newsletters
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All the best-
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© 2025 David Paul Carter. Photo Credit: Metamorworks | iStock
Thanks to Claude Sonnet4 for helping me streamline and sharpen my ideas in this article.
Sources
Newell, B.R. & Shanks, D.R. (2014). “Unconscious influences on decision making: A critical review.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 37(1), 1-19.
“Decision-making May Be Surprisingly Unconscious Activity.” ScienceDaily, April 14, 2008.
“How to make big decisions: A cross-sectional study on the decision making process in life choices.” Current Psychology, February 10, 2022.
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